Amid the lapse of the last major US-Russia arms control pact, New START, Washington has levied fresh accusations of secret Chinese nuclear tests—claims flatly denied by the global monitoring body, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO). This clash highlights intense international focus on China’s estimated 600-warhead arsenal, which is growing even as Beijing rejects calls to join trilateral arms talks.
The unraveling of the world’s final binding nuclear arms treaty has turned the strategic spotlight squarely on China. As the New START agreement between the United States and Russia expired, U.S. officials pivoted to accuse Beijing of conducting clandestine nuclear explosive tests in 2020. However, the international authority tasked with detecting such tests has publicly contradicted the American claim.
In a statement addressing the allegations, CTBTO Executive Secretary Robert Floyd asserted that its global monitoring network “did not detect any event consistent with the characteristics of a nuclear weapon test explosion” at the cited time. This denial throws Washington’s accusations into sharp relief, framing them within a broader geopolitical struggle over the future of arms control.
READ ALSO: https://modernmechanics24.com/post/lk-99-superconductor-claim-sparks-hope/
The core issue isn’t a commercial product, but China’s nuclear arsenal itself—a strategic deterrent capability. The growing debate centers on whether its development and modernization undermine global stability, especially as the traditional U.S.-Russia arms control framework fractures.
China’s nuclear forces serve a singular declared purpose: to ensure a credible retaliatory strike capability that deters nuclear aggression against its territory. This is enshrined in its long-standing “no first use” policy, pledging it will not initiate a nuclear conflict. The arsenal, comprising land-based missiles, submarine-launched systems, and air-launched weapons, is designed to survive a first strike and deliver a punishing response.
The U.S. allegation was made by Thomas DiNanno, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control, who claimed knowledge of Chinese tests with yields “in the hundreds of tonnes.” China’s disarmament ambassador, Shen Jian, dismissed the charge as “hype,” countering that America itself is the “culprit for the aggravation of the arms race.” This exchange, reported by the South China Morning Post, underscores the deepening mistrust.
WATCH ALSO: https://modernmechanics24.com/post/hyundai-atlas-humanoid-robot-wins-honor/
The strategic direction for China’s nuclear capabilities is set by the national leadership and the Central Military Commission. The physical development and deployment fall to the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLA Rocket Force), the branch responsible for operating the country’s land-based nuclear and conventional missiles.
A significant constraint, often cited by Western analysts and governments, is a perceived lack of operational transparency and detailed data sharing. Unlike the U.S. and Russia, China does not engage in bilateral warhead counts or provide real-time telemetry data. This opacity fuels external estimates and suspicions, complicating efforts at strategic dialogue or risk reduction.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China possesses approximately 600 nuclear warheads, a number that has been growing by roughly 100 annually. Even at a projected 1,500 warheads by 2035, its stockpile would remain vastly smaller than the 5,000+ each held by Washington and Moscow. Beijing uses this disparity to reject U.S. calls for trilateral arms talks, arguing the “primary responsibility for nuclear disarmament” lies with the two superpowers.
READ ALSO: https://modernmechanics24.com/post/worlds-first-sodium-ion-battery-ev/
From Beijing’s perspective, the value of its nuclear expansion is rooted in achieving “strategic deterrence” and maintaining “global strategic equilibrium.” As stated in its recent policy white paper, its forces are kept at the “minimum level necessary” to safeguard sovereignty. In a world where New START has lapsed and advanced missile defenses are proliferating, China views a modern, survivable nuclear force as non-negotiable for its national security.
The expiration of New START marks a precarious moment. With no replacement treaty, the risk of an unconstrained three-way arms race—driven by new technologies like hypersonic glide vehicles and advanced missile defenses—has grown substantially. While the CTBTO’s rebuttal provides a fact-based counterpoint to one inflammatory accusation, it does little to calm the underlying anxieties about quantity, capability, and intent that now define this new triangular nuclear dynamic.
