Chinese nuclear experts are scrutinizing a stark warning from the late US statesman Henry Kissinger, who predicted Japan would become a nuclear power by 2028. Their assessment is even more immediate: they believe Japan possesses the technical capacity and latent motivation to develop nuclear weapons in less than three years, should it choose to cross that threshold.
This grave evaluation follows concerning signals from Tokyo. Last month, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi touched upon the nation’s sacrosanct three non-nuclear principles, seeking a legal opening. Subsequently, a senior security advisor in her office publicly stated he believed “Japan should possess nuclear weapons,” reported the Asahi Shimbun. While Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara later reaffirmed Japan’s non-nuclear pledge, experts say the country exists in a state of “nuclear latency.”
This means it forgoes weapons now but could rapidly produce them. “Technically speaking, Japan possesses sufficient industrial capacity to build even more advanced nuclear weapons… in a short time,” stated a nuclear scientist from western China, who spoke anonymously due to the topic’s sensitivity. He emphasized Japan’s massive stockpile of nuclear fuel, ostensibly for civilian power, as a key enabler.
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The technical pathway, according to experts in Beijing, is disturbingly clear. Japan’s total separated plutonium stockpile is a colossal 44.4 tonnes, with 8.6 tonnes stored domestically. Given that only about 8kg (17lbs) of plutonium is needed for one bomb, the domestic cache is more than sufficient. “Japan has enough nuclear material, like plutonium, to build a weapon, and likely the technology for enriched uranium,” noted a Beijing-based nuclear expert, who added that Kissinger’s prediction is “technically possible,” according to the South China Morning Post. While this plutonium isn’t weapons-grade, Japan has sophisticated refining capabilities.
But could Japan test a weapon secretly? Experts point to modern methods that circumvent traditional explosive tests. The United States, for instance, conducts subcritical tests that compress nuclear material without triggering a chain reaction, gathering data for supercomputer simulations. Japan boasts the powerful Fugaku supercomputer, ranking high on global lists, which could run such simulations. Furthermore, its Gekko XII laser facility in Osaka, used for fusion research, operates on principles similar to the secondary implosion of a hydrogen bomb, providing another avenue for weapons-relevant research without a visible explosion.
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The final piece of the puzzle is delivery. Japan’s arsenal of delivery platforms is rapidly evolving. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s Epsilon rocket is a solid-fuel vehicle capable of placing a 1.2-tonne payload into low-Earth orbit—characteristics that mirror an intercontinental ballistic missile’s responsiveness and range. Concurrently, Japan is enhancing its Type 12 cruise missile to a 1,000km (620-mile) range and has purchased US-made Tomahawk cruise missiles with a 1,600km range for ship-based deployment, forming a complementary, long-range strike triad.
China has responded with alarm. On December 22, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian called recent Japanese officials’ comments a direct threat to regional peace and a challenge to the global non-proliferation system. He urged Japan to honour its commitments and halt any move toward nuclear armament. The underlying fear, echoing Kissinger’s final analysis, is that Japan may seek to revive pre-war military stature when conditions seem favorable. While International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) oversight and domestic public opinion currently act as restraints, the technical foundation for a swift breakout is undeniably in place, setting a precarious clock ticking in East Asia.
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