Russian forces launched the second known combat use of their secretive Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) overnight, targeting western Ukraine near the Polish border as part of a massive missile and drone barrage. Moscow claimed the high-profile strike, which involved a weapon capable of carrying nuclear warheads, was retaliation for an alleged—and widely disputed—attempt on President Vladimir Putin’s life.
The glow of multiple reentry vehicles streaking through the night sky over Ukraine’s Lviv region signaled a significant escalation in Russia’s long-range strike portfolio. This marks only the second time the Oreshnik (RS-26) missile has been used in combat since its shocking debut in November 2024. According to The War Zone, which first reported the missile’s existence after its initial use, the Oreshnik is a weapon shrouded in mystery, believed to be based on a strategic system whose development was officially halted years ago. Its deployment from the Kapustin Yar test range in this latest attack underscores its role as a high-value, precision tool in Russia’s arsenal.
Why use such a potent and politically sensitive weapon? The Kremlin’s stated justification—retaliation for a foiled drone attack on Putin’s residence—was immediately labeled “absurd” by Ukrainian officials and dismissed by Washington. But the symbolism may be the real point. “In general, the question remains… why link massive strikes to ‘terrorist attacks’?” noted Dmitry Stefanovich, a research fellow at the Russian Center for International Security, IMEMO RAS, in analysis reported by The War Zone. He suggested the rhetorical link seemed weak, hinting the strike’s purpose was broader: a demonstration of resolve and capability.
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The tactical purpose of the strike remains murky. Ukrainian authorities reported the missile struck a residential area, while other unverified reports pointed to a large underground gas storage facility. Intriguingly, evidence suggests the missile may have again been fired with inert warheads, as in its first use. This raises a fascinating tactical possibility: could the Oreshnik be used as a high-speed earth-penetrator, relying on kinetic energy alone to destroy hardened underground targets without a large explosive payload? For a nuclear-capable missile, this would be a highly unconventional—and risky—form of conventional warfare.
The location of the strike itself sent a deliberate geopolitical message. Launching an IRBM so close to the border of NATO and the European Union is a brazen challenge to the West. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister was quick to call it a “grave threat” to European security, a move clearly designed to rally international pressure against Moscow. The attack also differed from the first Oreshnik use by being integrated into a much larger, coordinated barrage of cruise missiles and drones, showing Russia’s ability to layer complex attacks and potentially overwhelm air defenses.
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A critical, unresolved question is whether the United States received prior notification through the Nuclear Risk Reduction Center (NRRC), a channel used to prevent miscalculation during the first launch. Some analysts believe Washington was warned, but official confirmation is pending. This procedural detail matters immensely, as failing to notify about the launch of a weapon traditionally associated with nuclear payloads could dangerously escalate tensions.
Ultimately, the second combat use of the Oreshnik appears to serve multiple goals for the Kremlin. It tests the weapon system in a real-world environment, probes Ukrainian and Western reactions, and projects an image of retaliatory strength for a domestic audience. While its immediate military impact against Ukraine may have been limited—especially if it carried inert warheads—its strategic impact is far-reaching. It reinforces Russia’s willingness to deploy its most advanced strategic weapons conventionally, blurring the line between nuclear and non-nuclear escalation in a way that keeps the West permanently off-balance.
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