A new Pentagon assessment reports that China’s “historic military build-up,” including plans for six aircraft carriers and sixth-generation fighter jets by 2035, has made the United States homeland “increasingly vulnerable.” The report to Congress highlights a growing arsenal capable of directly threatening Americans’ security.
In a sobering annual assessment delivered to the U.S. Congress, the Pentagon has framed China’s rapid military modernization as a direct threat to American security. The report, titled “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China,” states plainly that advancements in Beijing’s nuclear, cyber, space, and long-range strike capabilities have eroded traditional U.S. advantages. This conclusion, reported by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), underscores a strategic shift where the continental United States is no longer a sanctuary but a potential target.
“China’s historic military build-up has made the U.S. homeland increasingly vulnerable,” the document asserts. It specifically cites Beijing’s growing ability to project power far beyond its shores, a capability once dominated solely by the United States. Yet, the report also carries a diplomatic thread, emphasizing that Washington is “not pursuing a forceful strategy” and seeks to deter conflict through strength rather than provocation. “We do not seek to strangle, dominate or humiliate China,” it states.
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The projections for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy are particularly striking. The Pentagon now believes China aims to operate a fleet of six aircraft carriers by 2035. This would bring its total to nine, a figure that exceeds many external observers’ previous estimates and signals a profound commitment to blue-water power projection. This assessment comes just a month after China’s most advanced carrier, the Fujian, entered service. With its electromagnetic catapults, the Fujian placed China in an elite club, making it only the second country after the U.S. to operate such technology.
In the skies, a similar race is unfolding. The report predicts that China’s sixth-generation fighter jets will enter service around 2035. This timeline follows Washington’s own estimated deployment of its next-generation aircraft, the F-47, by 2029. The simultaneous development of these advanced platforms highlights an intensifying technological competition that will define air superiority for decades to come.
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Perhaps the most sensitive area detailed is nuclear deterrence. The Pentagon states that China “remains on track to have over 1,000 warheads by 2030,” even though growth slowed slightly last year. Zhou Bo, a retired PLA senior colonel and senior fellow at Tsinghua University, offered context for this expansion, reported SCMP. “The growth of China’s nuclear forces is because the original base was too small,” Zhou said, downplaying ambitions for numerical parity with the U.S. He also dismissed concerns about Chinese operations near the American mainland, stating the PLA “has neither operated near the U.S. mainland nor has the intention to do so.”
A significant portion of the report is devoted to the tense situation surrounding Taiwan, which Beijing views as a renegade province. The Pentagon outlines China’s military goals for 2027, which include the ability to achieve a “strategic decisive victory” over Taiwan and gain “strategic counterbalance” against the U.S. It details four potential invasion scenarios, ranging from blockade campaigns to full-scale amphibious assaults. On this point, Zhou Bo shifted some responsibility, stating the manner of reunification “does not depend entirely on us” and “depends more on the Taiwan authorities.”
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Analysts parsing the document noted its mixed signals. Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst with the Eurasia Group, observed that while it recognizes China’s military progress, its tone is “notably constructive,” even claiming U.S.-China relations are stronger than in years. “This claim is dubious,” Chan noted, “but it is also a revealing signal” of the current administration’s reluctance to disrupt a fragile diplomatic detente.
Ultimately, the report paints a picture of inevitable strategic friction. It acknowledges China’ methodical progress toward its goals, which directly challenge U.S. primacy in the Indo-Pacific. As Chan concluded, “It is only a matter of time until China’s power projection goes global.” For American strategists, the central challenge is now clear: managing this profound shift in the balance of power without tipping into a conflict that, as the Pentagon itself warns, could directly threaten the security of the American people.
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